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The Drunkard's Walk
by Leonard Mlodinow • 2008
Success isn't as earned as you think. Probability decides more outcomes than talent ever does.
3.95
25k+
The Drunkard's Walk Summary
The Drunkard's Walk 96%
Success isn't as earned as you think. Probability decides more outcomes than talent ever does.
by Leonard Mlodinow 2008
3.95
25k+ ratings
Risk Intelligence
by Dylan Evans • 2012
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
3.71
256
Risk Intelligence Summary
Risk Intelligence 96%
Your probability estimates are worse than you think. It's trainable, and the payoff is real.
by Dylan Evans 2012
3.71
256 ratings
Fooled by Randomness
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb • 2001
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
4.08
72k+
Fooled by Randomness Summary
Fooled by Randomness 96%
Ten thousand coin-flippers produce three hundred geniuses. The biographies write themselves.
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2001
4.08
72k+ ratings
Scorecasting
by Tobias J. Moskowitz • 2011
Why home teams really win, why momentum is a mirage, and the economics that explains sports.
3.82
6k+
Scorecasting Summary
Scorecasting 96%
Why home teams really win, why momentum is a mirage, and the economics that explains sports.
by Tobias J. Moskowitz 2011
3.82
6k+ ratings
The Hot Hand
by Ben Cohen • 2020
Stephen Curry didn't just get hot. He changed what science believes about streaks.
3.74
1k+
The Hot Hand Summary
The Hot Hand 96%
Stephen Curry didn't just get hot. He changed what science believes about streaks.
by Ben Cohen 2020
3.74
1k+ ratings
The Success Equation
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2012
The ratio of skill to luck shapes every outcome. Most people misread it and pay dearly.
3.94
2k+
The Success Equation Summary
The Success Equation 95%
The ratio of skill to luck shapes every outcome. Most people misread it and pay dearly.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2012
3.94
2k+ ratings
Numbers Rule Your World
by Fung • 2010
Statistics reveals why lines feel shorter, credit scores work, and safe airlines are an illusion.
3.56
1k+
Numbers Rule Your World Summary
Numbers Rule Your World 95%
Statistics reveals why lines feel shorter, credit scores work, and safe airlines are an illusion.
by Fung 2010
3.56
1k+ ratings
Innumeracy
by John Allen Paulos • 1988
A lottery ticket, a medical test, a sensational statistic: when smart people can't do the math.
3.78
5k+
Innumeracy Summary
Innumeracy 95%
A lottery ticket, a medical test, a sensational statistic: when smart people can't do the math.
by John Allen Paulos 1988
3.78
5k+ ratings
Think Twice
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2009
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
3.93
1k+
Think Twice Summary
Think Twice 95%
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2009
3.93
1k+ ratings
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market
by John Allen Paulos • 2003
The market's worst crashes aren't anomalies: they're built into the math most investors ignore.
3.46
823
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market Summary
A Mathematician Plays the Stock Market 95%
The market's worst crashes aren't anomalies: they're built into the math most investors ignore.
by John Allen Paulos 2003
3.46
823 ratings
How to Make the World Add Up
by Tim Harford • 2020
Bad statistics weaponize your feelings. Ten rules for seeing what the numbers actually say.
4.12
8k+
How to Make the World Add Up Summary
How to Make the World Add Up 95%
Bad statistics weaponize your feelings. Ten rules for seeing what the numbers actually say.
by Tim Harford 2020
4.12
8k+ ratings
Chancing It
by Robert Matthews • 2017
How a formula from 17th-century gambling can tell you what any decision is worth.
3.81
227
Chancing It Summary
Chancing It 95%
How a formula from 17th-century gambling can tell you what any decision is worth.
by Robert Matthews 2017
3.81
227 ratings
How We Know What Isn't So
by Thomas Gilovich • 1991
The mind finds pattern in noise, then argues for it with absolute conviction.
3.95
3k+
How We Know What Isn't So Summary
How We Know What Isn't So 95%
The mind finds pattern in noise, then argues for it with absolute conviction.
by Thomas Gilovich 1991
3.95
3k+ ratings
Freakonomics Rev Ed
by Steven D. Levitt • 2005
Data, not experts, explains why crime fell, why teachers cheat, and why agents undersell your house.
4.01
902k+
Freakonomics Rev Ed Summary
Freakonomics Rev Ed 95%
Data, not experts, explains why crime fell, why teachers cheat, and why agents undersell your house.
by Steven D. Levitt 2005
4.01
902k+ ratings
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis
by David Aronson • 2006
Most technical analysis is untestable folklore. The case for rebuilding it as a science.
3.67
153
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis Summary
Evidence-Based Technical Analysis 95%
Most technical analysis is untestable folklore. The case for rebuilding it as a science.
by David Aronson 2006
3.67
153 ratings
The Improbability Principle
by David J. Hand • 2014
Why do extremely unlikely events happen daily? A few hidden laws make the extraordinary routine.
3.73
2k+
The Improbability Principle Summary
The Improbability Principle 95%
Why do extremely unlikely events happen daily? A few hidden laws make the extraordinary routine.
by David J. Hand 2014
3.73
2k+ ratings
Risk Savvy
by Gerd Gigerenzer • 2013
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
4.01
2k+
Risk Savvy Summary
Risk Savvy 94%
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
by Gerd Gigerenzer 2013
4.01
2k+ ratings
Irrationality
by Stuart Sutherland • 1992
Predictable mental errors everyone makes, from overconfidence to throwing good money after bad.
3.91
2k+
Irrationality Summary
Irrationality 94%
Predictable mental errors everyone makes, from overconfidence to throwing good money after bad.
by Stuart Sutherland 1992
3.91
2k+ ratings
How Not to Be Wrong
by Jordan Ellenberg • 2014
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
3.95
22k+
How Not to Be Wrong Summary
How Not to Be Wrong 94%
Your brain defaults to straight lines. Math reveals the curves that keep you from being wrong.
by Jordan Ellenberg 2014
3.95
22k+ ratings
The Winner's Curse
by Richard H. Thaler • 1991
Economic models assume you're rational; auctions, risk, and mental accounting prove otherwise.
3.82
611
The Winner's Curse Summary
The Winner's Curse 94%
Economic models assume you're rational; auctions, risk, and mental accounting prove otherwise.
by Richard H. Thaler 1991
3.82
611 ratings
Perfectly Confident
by Don A. Moore • 2020
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
3.67
315
Perfectly Confident Summary
Perfectly Confident 94%
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
by Don A. Moore 2020
3.67
315 ratings
An Economist Walks into a Brothel
by Allison Schrager • 2019
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
3.56
2k+
An Economist Walks into a Brothel Summary
An Economist Walks into a Brothel 94%
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
by Allison Schrager 2019
3.56
2k+ ratings
Future Babble
by Dan Gardner • 2010
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
3.79
737
Future Babble Summary
Future Babble 94%
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
by Dan Gardner 2010
3.79
737 ratings
Standard Deviations
by Gary Smith • 2014
Tortured data, seductive charts, and the cognitive bugs that turn noise into insight.
3.95
911
Standard Deviations Summary
Standard Deviations 94%
Tortured data, seductive charts, and the cognitive bugs that turn noise into insight.
by Gary Smith 2014
3.95
911 ratings
The Undoing Project
by Michael Lewis • 2016
Two men, one mind. The friendship that mapped the hidden flaws in every human judgment.
3.99
64k+
The Undoing Project Summary
The Undoing Project 94%
Two men, one mind. The friendship that mapped the hidden flaws in every human judgment.
by Michael Lewis 2016
3.99
64k+ ratings
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book
by The 30 Minute Expert Series • 2013
You jump to conclusions because you're wired to. Those jumps follow a script you can learn.
3.87
31
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book Summary
Thinking Fast and Slow in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Daniel Kahneman's Critically Acclaimed Book 94%
You jump to conclusions because you're wired to. Those jumps follow a script you can learn.
by The 30 Minute Expert Series 2013
3.87
31 ratings
The Flaw of Averages
by Sam L. Savage • 2009
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
3.86
574
The Flaw of Averages Summary
The Flaw of Averages 94%
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
by Sam L. Savage 2009
3.86
574 ratings
How to Expect the Unexpected
by Kit Yates • 2023
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
3.69
188
How to Expect the Unexpected Summary
How to Expect the Unexpected 94%
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
by Kit Yates 2023
3.69
188 ratings
The Biggest Bluff
by Maria Konnikova • 2020
No card skills, a legendary coach: how a journalist reached a pro poker final table.
4.07
16k+
The Biggest Bluff Summary
The Biggest Bluff 94%
No card skills, a legendary coach: how a journalist reached a pro poker final table.
by Maria Konnikova 2020
4.07
16k+ ratings
The Norm Chronicles
by Michael Blastland • 2014
Why we fear plane crashes but not burgers: the stories and numbers behind your worst instincts.
3.59
564
The Norm Chronicles Summary
The Norm Chronicles 94%
Why we fear plane crashes but not burgers: the stories and numbers behind your worst instincts.
by Michael Blastland 2014
3.59
564 ratings
Calculated Risks
by Gerd Gigerenzer • 2002
How to tell when a percentage misleads you, and the reframing that reveals the truth.
3.96
671
Calculated Risks Summary
Calculated Risks 94%
How to tell when a percentage misleads you, and the reframing that reveals the truth.
by Gerd Gigerenzer 2002
3.96
671 ratings
Against the Gods
by Peter L. Bernstein • 1996
The modern world began when humans stopped blaming the gods and started calculating the odds.
3.95
15k+
Against the Gods Summary
Against the Gods 94%
The modern world began when humans stopped blaming the gods and started calculating the odds.
by Peter L. Bernstein 1996
3.95
15k+ ratings
The Great Mental Models Volume 3
by Rhiannon Beaubien • 2021
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
4.25
832
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 Summary
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 94%
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
by Rhiannon Beaubien 2021
4.25
832 ratings
Sports Betting to Win
by Steve Ward • 2011
Ten principles that turn sports betting from a hobby into a hedge fund: process over picks.
4.16
32
Sports Betting to Win Summary
Sports Betting to Win 94%
Ten principles that turn sports betting from a hobby into a hedge fund: process over picks.
by Steve Ward 2011
4.16
32 ratings
Misbehaving
by Richard H. Thaler • 2016
Economists built models of flawless decision makers. One professor proved those people don't exist.
4.16
24k+
Misbehaving Summary
Misbehaving 94%
Economists built models of flawless decision makers. One professor proved those people don't exist.
by Richard H. Thaler 2016
4.16
24k+ ratings
Thinking Basketball
by Ben Taylor • 2016
Championship rings say nothing about a player. Neither does points per game. The stats that do.
4.17
617
Thinking Basketball Summary
Thinking Basketball 94%
Championship rings say nothing about a player. Neither does points per game. The stats that do.
by Ben Taylor 2016
4.17
617 ratings
The Numbers Game
by Michael Blastland • 2008
Most numbers in the news mislead you; a few mental habits reveal the real story.
3.65
344
The Numbers Game Summary
The Numbers Game 94%
Most numbers in the news mislead you; a few mental habits reveal the real story.
by Michael Blastland 2008
3.65
344 ratings
May Contain Lies
by Alex Edmans • 2024
Why bad statistics and success stories feel convincing, and a systematic way to see through them.
4.11
1k+
May Contain Lies Summary
May Contain Lies 94%
Why bad statistics and success stories feel convincing, and a systematic way to see through them.
by Alex Edmans 2024
4.11
1k+ ratings
Why We Make Mistakes
by Joseph T. Hallinan • 2009
Your brain edits reality, rewrites your memories, and is certain you're above average.
3.91
9k+
Why We Make Mistakes Summary
Why We Make Mistakes 94%
Your brain edits reality, rewrites your memories, and is certain you're above average.
by Joseph T. Hallinan 2009
3.91
9k+ ratings
Superforecasting
by Philip E. Tetlock • 2015
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
4.08
22k+
Superforecasting Summary
Superforecasting 94%
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
by Philip E. Tetlock 2015
4.08
22k+ ratings
100 mental models
by Wisdom Theory
Why a hundred borrowed concepts from physics, economics, and psychology beat expertise alone.
4.00
105
100 mental models Summary
100 mental models 94%
Why a hundred borrowed concepts from physics, economics, and psychology beat expertise alone.
by Wisdom Theory
4.00
105 ratings
Rationality
by Steven Pinker • 2021
How a single mental toolkit built science, law, and democracy, and why it keeps short-circuiting.
3.84
7k+
Rationality Summary
Rationality 94%
How a single mental toolkit built science, law, and democracy, and why it keeps short-circuiting.
by Steven Pinker 2021
3.84
7k+ ratings
The Behavioral Investor
by Doctor Daniel Crosby • 2018
Markets run on psychology, not math. Your ancient brain needs systems, not instinct, to invest.
4.03
773
The Behavioral Investor Summary
The Behavioral Investor 94%
Markets run on psychology, not math. Your ancient brain needs systems, not instinct, to invest.
by Doctor Daniel Crosby 2018
4.03
773 ratings
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper
by John Allen Paulos • 1997
The morning paper rests on hidden math. A mathematician reveals the numbers that change the story.
3.60
1k+
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper Summary
A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper 94%
The morning paper rests on hidden math. A mathematician reveals the numbers that change the story.
by John Allen Paulos 1997
3.60
1k+ ratings
Sway
by Ori Brafman • 2008
Seven invisible biases that make rational people overpay, overstay, and reject free money.
3.78
20k+
Sway Summary
Sway 94%
Seven invisible biases that make rational people overpay, overstay, and reject free money.
by Ori Brafman 2008
3.78
20k+ ratings
The Laws of Trading
by Agustin Lebron • 2019
The rules that keep traders alive are the same rules that govern every decision you make.
4.03
426
The Laws of Trading Summary
The Laws of Trading 94%
The rules that keep traders alive are the same rules that govern every decision you make.
by Agustin Lebron 2019
4.03
426 ratings
Don't Believe Everything You Think
by Thomas Kida • 2006
Your brain hunts for stories, ignores stats, and rewrites its memories. Skepticism is the repair.
3.82
853
Don't Believe Everything You Think Summary
Don't Believe Everything You Think 94%
Your brain hunts for stories, ignores stats, and rewrites its memories. Skepticism is the repair.
by Thomas Kida 2006
3.82
853 ratings
Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
by THARP • 1998
A random coin toss beat every entry method when paired with the right exit rules.
4.08
2k+
Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom Summary
Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom 94%
A random coin toss beat every entry method when paired with the right exit rules.
by THARP 1998
4.08
2k+ ratings
Buddhism
by Damien Keown • 1996
Buddhism has no god, no bible, no pope. What holds its many traditions together?
3.74
3k+
Buddhism Summary
Buddhism 93%
Buddhism has no god, no bible, no pope. What holds its many traditions together?
by Damien Keown 1996
3.74
3k+ ratings
The Halo Effect
by Philip M. Rosenzweig • 2007
Celebrated business books share a fatal flaw: they mistake the glow of success for its cause.
3.89
6k+
The Halo Effect Summary
The Halo Effect 93%
Celebrated business books share a fatal flaw: they mistake the glow of success for its cause.
by Philip M. Rosenzweig 2007
3.89
6k+ ratings
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