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Uncharted
by Margaret Heffernan • 2020
Why the best leaders swap predictions for experiments, scenarios, and collective preparation.
3.64
458
Uncharted Summary
Uncharted 97%
Why the best leaders swap predictions for experiments, scenarios, and collective preparation.
by Margaret Heffernan 2020
3.64
458 ratings
Winning Long-Term Games
by Luca Dellanna • 2024
Stop optimizing for speed. Build assets, make many bets, and design a life that cannot lose.
4.17
81
Winning Long-Term Games Summary
Winning Long-Term Games 96%
Stop optimizing for speed. Build assets, make many bets, and design a life that cannot lose.
by Luca Dellanna 2024
4.17
81 ratings
The Optimist's Telescope
by Bina Venkataraman • 2019
The marshmallow test got it wrong: long-term thinking depends more on design than willpower.
3.45
601
The Optimist's Telescope Summary
The Optimist's Telescope 96%
The marshmallow test got it wrong: long-term thinking depends more on design than willpower.
by Bina Venkataraman 2019
3.45
601 ratings
Ergodicity
by Luca Dellanna • 2020
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
4.05
314
Ergodicity Summary
Ergodicity 96%
Why a bet that works for a hundred people destroys the one who repeats it.
by Luca Dellanna 2020
4.05
314 ratings
Decisive
by Chip Heath • 2013
Decisions fail in four predictable ways. A process fixes them, starting with one question.
3.96
18k+
Decisive Summary
Decisive 96%
Decisions fail in four predictable ways. A process fixes them, starting with one question.
by Chip Heath 2013
3.96
18k+ ratings
Smart Choices
by John S. Hammond • 1998
The most expensive mistakes happen before you even name the problem. A method for catching them.
4.02
7k+
Smart Choices Summary
Smart Choices 96%
The most expensive mistakes happen before you even name the problem. A method for catching them.
by John S. Hammond 1998
4.02
7k+ ratings
The Yellow Pad
by Robert E. Rubin • 2023
A yellow pad and honest odds: the method that steered Goldman Sachs and the White House.
3.70
268
The Yellow Pad Summary
The Yellow Pad 96%
A yellow pad and honest odds: the method that steered Goldman Sachs and the White House.
by Robert E. Rubin 2023
3.70
268 ratings
Framers
by Kenneth Cukier • 2021
AI can't ask 'what if.' That single gap explains why humans remain irreplaceable.
3.53
568
Framers Summary
Framers 96%
AI can't ask 'what if.' That single gap explains why humans remain irreplaceable.
by Kenneth Cukier 2021
3.53
568 ratings
The Art of Thinking In Systems
by Steven Schuster • 2018
Why your fixes backfire: the feedback loops, delays, and blind spots hiding in plain sight.
3.16
641
The Art of Thinking In Systems Summary
The Art of Thinking In Systems 96%
Why your fixes backfire: the feedback loops, delays, and blind spots hiding in plain sight.
by Steven Schuster 2018
3.16
641 ratings
Art of the Long View, The
by Peter Schwartz • 1991
Predicting the future is a fool's game. The smart money rehearses it instead.
3.80
924
Art of the Long View, The Summary
Art of the Long View, The 96%
Predicting the future is a fool's game. The smart money rehearses it instead.
by Peter Schwartz 1991
3.80
924 ratings
Superforecasting
by Philip E. Tetlock • 2015
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
4.08
22k+
Superforecasting Summary
Superforecasting 95%
30% more accurate than CIA analysts: the trainable habits that predict the future.
by Philip E. Tetlock 2015
4.08
22k+ ratings
Maxims for Thinking Analytically
by Dan Levy • 2021
Extreme cases and simple division: Harvard legend's toolkit for sharper thinking amid uncertainty.
3.92
583
Maxims for Thinking Analytically Summary
Maxims for Thinking Analytically 95%
Extreme cases and simple division: Harvard legend's toolkit for sharper thinking amid uncertainty.
by Dan Levy 2021
3.92
583 ratings
Never Go With Your Gut
by Gleb Tsipursky • 2019
Your gut is for survival, not strategy. Override the biases that cost 10 percent of revenue.
4.12
259
Never Go With Your Gut Summary
Never Go With Your Gut 95%
Your gut is for survival, not strategy. Override the biases that cost 10 percent of revenue.
by Gleb Tsipursky 2019
4.12
259 ratings
The Gray Rhino
by Michele Wucker • 2016
Obvious, predictable threats destroy more than surprises do, and we ignore them anyway.
3.57
391
The Gray Rhino Summary
The Gray Rhino 95%
Obvious, predictable threats destroy more than surprises do, and we ignore them anyway.
by Michele Wucker 2016
3.57
391 ratings
Thinking and Deciding
by Jonathan Baron • 2007
A psychologist's guide to mental shortcuts that fail, and the rules that repair them.
4.06
320
Thinking and Deciding Summary
Thinking and Deciding 95%
A psychologist's guide to mental shortcuts that fail, and the rules that repair them.
by Jonathan Baron 2007
4.06
320 ratings
100 mental models
by Wisdom Theory
Why a hundred borrowed concepts from physics, economics, and psychology beat expertise alone.
4.00
105
100 mental models Summary
100 mental models 95%
Why a hundred borrowed concepts from physics, economics, and psychology beat expertise alone.
by Wisdom Theory
4.00
105 ratings
Mental Models
by Peter Hollins • 2019
Mental models to decide faster, regret less, and stop mistaking urgency for importance.
3.97
956
Mental Models Summary
Mental Models 95%
Mental models to decide faster, regret less, and stop mistaking urgency for importance.
by Peter Hollins 2019
3.97
956 ratings
HBR Guide to Critical Thinking
by Harvard Business Review • 2023
Why assumptions trap you, and how to escape before you decide: HBR guide to clearer thinking.
3.92
198
HBR Guide to Critical Thinking Summary
HBR Guide to Critical Thinking 95%
Why assumptions trap you, and how to escape before you decide: HBR guide to clearer thinking.
by Harvard Business Review 2023
3.92
198 ratings
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3
by Shane Parrish • 2024
Why extra effort eventually backfires, luck isn't random, and one weak link can undo everything.
4.26
195
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3 Summary
The Great Mental Models, Volume 3 95%
Why extra effort eventually backfires, luck isn't random, and one weak link can undo everything.
by Shane Parrish 2024
4.26
195 ratings
Future Babble
by Dan Gardner • 2010
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
3.79
737
Future Babble Summary
Future Babble 95%
Confidence sells. Accuracy doesn't. Why the loudest experts are the worst forecasters.
by Dan Gardner 2010
3.79
737 ratings
The Flaw of Averages
by Sam L. Savage • 2009
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
3.86
574
The Flaw of Averages Summary
The Flaw of Averages 95%
A single average can sink your plan. The missing skill: thinking in distributions.
by Sam L. Savage 2009
3.86
574 ratings
Think Twice
by Michael J. Mauboussin • 2009
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
3.93
1k+
Think Twice Summary
Think Twice 95%
Smart people fail at decisions because the mind's ancient shortcuts misfire in modern complexity.
by Michael J. Mauboussin 2009
3.93
1k+ ratings
Perfectly Confident
by Don A. Moore • 2020
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
3.67
315
Perfectly Confident Summary
Perfectly Confident 95%
Confidence is a measurement problem: not how sure you feel, but how wrong you might be.
by Don A. Moore 2020
3.67
315 ratings
How to Expect the Unexpected
by Kit Yates • 2023
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
3.69
188
How to Expect the Unexpected Summary
How to Expect the Unexpected 95%
Master the science of prediction: why your gut fails, and when the smartest forecast is none.
by Kit Yates 2023
3.69
188 ratings
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
by Richards J. Heuer Jr. • 2005
CIA's textbook for outthinking your own limits: structured methods that catch what intuition misses.
4.27
1k+
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Summary
Psychology of Intelligence Analysis 95%
CIA's textbook for outthinking your own limits: structured methods that catch what intuition misses.
by Richards J. Heuer Jr. 2005
4.27
1k+ ratings
The Great Mental Models Volume 3
by Rhiannon Beaubien • 2021
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
4.25
832
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 Summary
The Great Mental Models Volume 3 95%
The world runs on feedback loops and bottlenecks you never see. The models that expose them.
by Rhiannon Beaubien 2021
4.25
832 ratings
Nonsense
by Jamie Holmes • 2015
Certainty is a trap. What not knowing does for creativity, smarter choices, and avoiding disaster.
3.61
1k+
Nonsense Summary
Nonsense 95%
Certainty is a trap. What not knowing does for creativity, smarter choices, and avoiding disaster.
by Jamie Holmes 2015
3.61
1k+ ratings
The Great Mental Models Volume 2
by Shane Parrish • 2019
The best mental tools come from physics, chemistry, and biology, not business books.
4.16
2k+
The Great Mental Models Volume 2 Summary
The Great Mental Models Volume 2 95%
The best mental tools come from physics, chemistry, and biology, not business books.
by Shane Parrish 2019
4.16
2k+ ratings
Risk Savvy
by Gerd Gigerenzer • 2013
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
4.01
2k+
Risk Savvy Summary
Risk Savvy 95%
Most real life is uncertainty, not risk. Simple decision rules beat complex models there.
by Gerd Gigerenzer 2013
4.01
2k+ ratings
You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake
by Olivier Sibony • 2019
You can't think your way out of bias. Better decisions need better process, not better people.
4.05
720
You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake Summary
You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake 94%
You can't think your way out of bias. Better decisions need better process, not better people.
by Olivier Sibony 2019
4.05
720 ratings
Third Millennium Thinking
by Saul Perlmutter • 2024
Probability over certainty, groups over lone genius: a Nobel physicist's toolkit for clear thinking.
3.66
339
Third Millennium Thinking Summary
Third Millennium Thinking 94%
Probability over certainty, groups over lone genius: a Nobel physicist's toolkit for clear thinking.
by Saul Perlmutter 2024
3.66
339 ratings
Wild Problems
by Russell "Russ" Roberts • 2022
The biggest decisions resist spreadsheets. An economist on what to do when calculation fails.
3.81
2k+
Wild Problems Summary
Wild Problems 94%
The biggest decisions resist spreadsheets. An economist on what to do when calculation fails.
by Russell "Russ" Roberts 2022
3.81
2k+ ratings
The Great Mental Models
by Shane Parrish • 2018
Nine thinking tools from philosophy, physics, and biology that upgrade every decision you make.
4.07
11k+
The Great Mental Models Summary
The Great Mental Models 94%
Nine thinking tools from philosophy, physics, and biology that upgrade every decision you make.
by Shane Parrish 2018
4.07
11k+ ratings
Radical Uncertainty
by Mervyn A. King • 2020
When the future is genuinely unknowable, stories guide us better than probability ever could.
3.86
1k+
Radical Uncertainty Summary
Radical Uncertainty 94%
When the future is genuinely unknowable, stories guide us better than probability ever could.
by Mervyn A. King 2020
3.86
1k+ ratings
Streetlights and Shadows
by Gary Klein • 2009
Complex situations demand a different decision playbook. One built on recognition, not comparison.
4.28
321
Streetlights and Shadows Summary
Streetlights and Shadows 94%
Complex situations demand a different decision playbook. One built on recognition, not comparison.
by Gary Klein 2009
4.28
321 ratings
Sources of Power, 20th Anniversary Edition
by Gary Klein • 1998
Your best decisions skip the options list. How firefighters, nurses, and commanders really decide.
3.97
3k+
Sources of Power, 20th Anniversary Edition Summary
Sources of Power, 20th Anniversary Edition 94%
Your best decisions skip the options list. How firefighters, nurses, and commanders really decide.
by Gary Klein 1998
3.97
3k+ ratings
The Power of Noticing
by Max H. Bazerman • 2014
The worst failures were visible beforehand; the missing ingredient was never data but attention.
3.40
437
The Power of Noticing Summary
The Power of Noticing 94%
The worst failures were visible beforehand; the missing ingredient was never data but attention.
by Max H. Bazerman 2014
3.40
437 ratings
The Art of Problem Solving
by Russell L. Ackoff • 1978
Dead ends are usually self-built. Spotting the walls you didn't know you erected is the art.
3.94
161
The Art of Problem Solving Summary
The Art of Problem Solving 94%
Dead ends are usually self-built. Spotting the walls you didn't know you erected is the art.
by Russell L. Ackoff 1978
3.94
161 ratings
Obliquity
by John Kay • 2010
The goals that matter most are best achieved by aiming for something else entirely.
3.62
1k+
Obliquity Summary
Obliquity 94%
The goals that matter most are best achieved by aiming for something else entirely.
by John Kay 2010
3.62
1k+ ratings
The Art of Critical Decision Making
by Michael A. Roberto • 2009
Data doesn't make decisions. Debate does. The process for designing the right argument in any room.
4.09
573
The Art of Critical Decision Making Summary
The Art of Critical Decision Making 94%
Data doesn't make decisions. Debate does. The process for designing the right argument in any room.
by Michael A. Roberto 2009
4.09
573 ratings
What's Your Problem?
by Thomas Wedell-Wedellsborg • 2020
Your problem-solving instinct is your biggest obstacle. A method for seeing the real problem first.
4.23
669
What's Your Problem? Summary
What's Your Problem? 94%
Your problem-solving instinct is your biggest obstacle. A method for seeing the real problem first.
by Thomas Wedell-Wedellsborg 2020
4.23
669 ratings
The Great Mental Models, Volume 4
by Shane Parrish • 2024
Economics shows you the trade-off. Art shows you the story. Together they retrain what you notice.
3.92
298
The Great Mental Models, Volume 4 Summary
The Great Mental Models, Volume 4 94%
Economics shows you the trade-off. Art shows you the story. Together they retrain what you notice.
by Shane Parrish 2024
3.92
298 ratings
Irrationality
by Stuart Sutherland • 1992
Predictable mental errors everyone makes, from overconfidence to throwing good money after bad.
3.91
2k+
Irrationality Summary
Irrationality 94%
Predictable mental errors everyone makes, from overconfidence to throwing good money after bad.
by Stuart Sutherland 1992
3.91
2k+ ratings
Sway
by Ori Brafman • 2008
Seven invisible biases that make rational people overpay, overstay, and reject free money.
3.78
20k+
Sway Summary
Sway 94%
Seven invisible biases that make rational people overpay, overstay, and reject free money.
by Ori Brafman 2008
3.78
20k+ ratings
Simple Rules
by Donald Sull • 2015
When complexity spikes, thick playbooks fail. A handful of tailored rules holds up.
3.68
2k+
Simple Rules Summary
Simple Rules 94%
When complexity spikes, thick playbooks fail. A handful of tailored rules holds up.
by Donald Sull 2015
3.68
2k+ ratings
The Systems Thinker
by Albert Rutherford • 2018
The mental models and feedback tools that crack the problems linear thinking only makes worse.
3.49
356
The Systems Thinker Summary
The Systems Thinker 94%
The mental models and feedback tools that crack the problems linear thinking only makes worse.
by Albert Rutherford 2018
3.49
356 ratings
Imaginable
by Jane McGonigal • 2022
Train your brain to see the future: exercises from a futurist that turn anxiety into agency.
4.08
1k+
Imaginable Summary
Imaginable 94%
Train your brain to see the future: exercises from a futurist that turn anxiety into agency.
by Jane McGonigal 2022
4.08
1k+ ratings
The Science of Successful Organizational Change
by Paul Gibbons • 2015
Half of all change efforts fail. The fix is the behavioral science most leaders overlook.
4.07
45
The Science of Successful Organizational Change Summary
The Science of Successful Organizational Change 94%
Half of all change efforts fail. The fix is the behavioral science most leaders overlook.
by Paul Gibbons 2015
4.07
45 ratings
Critical Thinking
by Richard Paul • 2000
Your reasoning carries invisible flaws. A system for auditing them and thinking with real clarity.
3.94
1k+
Critical Thinking Summary
Critical Thinking 94%
Your reasoning carries invisible flaws. A system for auditing them and thinking with real clarity.
by Richard Paul 2000
3.94
1k+ ratings
An Economist Walks into a Brothel
by Allison Schrager • 2019
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
3.56
2k+
An Economist Walks into a Brothel Summary
An Economist Walks into a Brothel 94%
An economist sizes up risk in brothels, poker rooms, and monster waves, then hands us the rules.
by Allison Schrager 2019
3.56
2k+ ratings
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